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“Early in the week, sharp money is generally the reason you will see a line move. “Both sharp and square betting have an impact on the adjustments,” according to Scott Cooley, an Odds Consultant for. Instead, they are looking to avoid major liabilities and exploit the predictable tendencies of casual football bettors. That’s particularly true in college football where there are dozens of games each weekend and the number of bets fluctuates tremendously based on the matchup. Contrary to popular belief, oddsmakers aren’t aiming for perfectly balanced books. That’s one reason it’s typically advisable to wait until later in the week before taking these unpopular teams.įor anybody unfamiliar with betting against the public, it’s crucial to understand that the value is directly correlated with the number of bets placed on each game. In order for betting against the public to be an effective strategy, contrarian bettors need to wait for public money to inflate the spread. In the 115 games where the line did not move with the money, bettors would have gone just 55-60 ATS (47.8%). In the 173 games where the line moved with the money, bettors would have gone 96-77 ATS (55.5%) by fading the public. By comparing Pinnacle’s opening line with their closing line, you can clearly see that public money leads to artificially inflated lines. In these games, the line moved against the money on 77 occasions, moved with the money on 173 occasions and remained unchanged on 38 occasions. Public BettingĪs you can see from the table above, there have been 288 games this season in which one team was receiving at least 70% of spread dollars and their opponent was receiving no more than 30% of spread dollars. The table below examines the results from betting against the public using our money percentages from the 2016 college football regular season. By waiting until public money has artificially inflated the line, contrarian bettors can capitalize on public perception and find additional line value. If the liability becomes too great, they will often adjust their number to encourage action on the other side, thereby mitigating some of their risk.

Most oddsmakers are able to anticipate which games will take one-sided public betting, so they will shade their opening lines to account for the predictable flood of public money. It’s important to know which side is receiving the majority of tickets, but it’s far more crucial to understand which side is receiving a majority of the money since books are far more likely to adjust their lines if they have significant liability on one side. This feature, which is exclusive to Sportsbook Insider members, allows bettors to easily monitor one of the biggest factors influencing line movement.

In addition to our public betting percentages, we now offer real money percentages, which reflect the percentage of total dollars wagered at one of the sharper offshore sportsbooks. We have archived these ticket percentages for over a decade, however, we are constantly working to add new and innovative features to help bettors make informed decisions and smarter bets. By including both sharp and square sportsbooks, our betting percentages accurately reflect which teams the public is backing across the marketplace. These betting trends reflect real bets placed by real bettors, as opposed to other websites that use “consensus” numbers. Since the beginning of the 2005 season, we have released a College Football Betting Against the Public Report before the start of each new season which examines the optimal threshold for betting against the public using the ticket percentages from our contributing sportsbooks. Oddsmakers are constantly evolving to adjust for recent trends, and this research ensures that bettors are always one step ahead of the books.įor anybody unfamiliar with Sports Insights, we track public betting percentages from seven major offshore sportsbooks: 5Dimes, BetDSI, BetUs, Carib, GTBets, SIA, and. It’s one of the most basic, yet highly profitable betting strategies.